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Natixis: Will emerging Asia remain resilient in 2021?
In this recent report on Emerging Asia, Natixis looks at what’s ahead for emerging economies and their resilience in 2021. Find out why Asian economies are more shielded than other markets but are not yet fully out of the woods.
See the full report.
Key highlights:
- Asia, and particularly China, is clearly “first in first, first out” in this crisis.
- Growth prospects are positive and inflation is well under control but some countries are more vulnerable than others.
- Barring frontier markets (especially Pakistan, Mongolia and Sri Lanka), the most vulnerable are India and Indonesia especially in the event of the sharp increase in UST yields. If the dollar appreciates at the same time and commodities continue with their ride, the situation can be even trickier.
- Still, compared with the rest of EM, especially Latin America, Asia is still shielded by large forex reserves and relatively moderate external debt.
- It goes without saying that China’s ability to keep high growth beyond 2021 is also key for the rest of Asia.
